Select Global Equity Index Movements
Sasini
Tea prices have held up in the USD 2.70 to USD 3.00 range over the past one year. These prices are at historically high levels. With the Kenya shilling weakening to an all time low, the Kenya Shilling performance of all tea companies is expected to be good in 2011.
Quote
30-Jun-11 | 30-Sep-11 | Change | |
Developed | |||
S&P 500 (USA 500 Share) | 1,320.64 | 1,131.42 | -14.33% |
Nikkei (Japan 225 Share) | 9,816.09 | 8,700.29 | -11.37% |
FTSE 100 (UK 100 Share) | 5,945.71 | 5,128.48 | -13.74% |
Advanced Emerging | |||
Sensex (India 30 Share) | 18,845.87 | 16,453.76 | -12.69% |
SSE (Shanghai, China All Share) | 2,762.07 | 2,359.22 | -14.59% |
Bovespa (Brazil 50 Share) | 62,403.64 | 52,324.42 | -16.15% |
JSE (South Africa All Share) | 31,864.54 | 29,674.20 | -6.87% |
Emerging Africa | |||
NGSE (Nigeria All Share) | 24,980.20 | 20,373.00 | -18.44% |
GSE (Ghana All Share) | 1,188.91 | 1,098.38 | -7.61% |
NSE - 20 (Nairobi 20 Share) | 3,968.12 | 3,284.06 | -17.24% |
There has been an overall decline in the indices due to global economic gloom. The World Bank, the Federal Reserve, the IMF, Japan’s Central Bank, and the European Central banks have all issued grim warnings about the state of the global economy. European and US Bank stocks have been particularly badly hit over fears that Greece will default on its debt.
The MSCI All-Country World Index is perhaps the best indicator of the severity of the situation, having dropped over 20% since May 2011. The last time the index experienced a similar downturn was during the global financial crisis in 2008.
Commodity prices have stalled across the board as a result of global economic headwinds. China, the world’s biggest consumer of copper has been showing slowing economic growth, hence the particularly hard fall of the metal.
Select Commodities Price Movements
| | |||
| | 30-Jun-11 | 30-Sep-11 | Change |
| Agricultural | | | |
| Tea - Mombasa Auction $/kg | 2.73 | 3.14 | +15.02% |
| Tea - Mombasa Auction Volume 000's/kgs | 5,568 | 4,905.00 | -11.91% |
| Coffee (NYBOT) cents/lbs : Closest futures | 265.35 | 228.90 | -13.74% |
| Wheat (CBT) cents/60lb: Closest futures | 584.75 | 609.25 | +4.19% |
| White Sugar LIFFE USD/Tonne | 739.00 | 663.30 | -10.24% |
| Palm Oil $ Malay Spot | 1,065.00 | 1,010.00 | -5.16% |
| Cocoa £/Tonne LIFFE: Closest futures | 1,954.00 | 1,699.00 | -13.05% |
| Crude oil | | | |
| Brent Blend(dated): Spot | 112.48 | 102.76 | -8.64% |
| Metals | | | |
| Gold COMEX $/100oz: Closest futures | 1,505.50 | 1,620.00 | +7.61% |
| Copper COMEX (High Grade): Closest futures | 425.85 | 310.35 | -27.12% |
Commodity prices have stalled across the board as a result of global economic headwinds. China, the world’s biggest consumer of copper has been showing slowing economic growth, hence the particularly hard fall of the metal.
The return to normalcy in the Ivory Coast (the world’s biggest producer of cocoa) has freed supplies leading to a fall of prices from historical highs.
Ghana Stock Exchange: Biggest movers
30-Jun-11 | 30-Sep-11 | Change | |
Gainers | |||
Total Ghana | 17.80 | 30.33 | +68.54% |
Starwin Products | 0.03 | 0.04 | +33.33% |
Golden Web | 0.03 | 0.04 | +33.33% |
Losers | |||
Trust Bank | 1.33 | 0.40 | -69.92% |
Transol Solutions | 0.07 | 0.05 | -28.57% |
Clydestone | 0.07 | 0.05 | -28.57% |
Total Ghana
Total’s share price has maintained a strong rally even as the GSE as a whole as fallen over the quarter to September 2011.
Total’s half year profits to June 2011 for 2010 climbed by 53.08% compared to the same period last year.
The share now trades at a PE ratio of 17 (based on the half year results). At this valuation the share is relatively expensive given than most stocks on the GSE have fallen on a sub 10 PE ratio.
Nairobi Stock Exchange: Biggest Movers
30-Jun-11 | 30-Sep-11 | Change | |
Gainers | |||
Limuru Tea | 213.00 | 312.00 | 46.46% |
CMC Motors | 10.80 | 13.50 | 25.00% |
Sasini | 11.30 | 12.05 | 6.64% |
Losers | |||
Pan Africa Insurance | 41.50 | 24.75 | -40.36% |
Barclays Bank | 17.20 | 10.65 | -38.08% |
National Bank | 34.75 | 23.25 | -33.09% |
Pan Africa Insurance
Pan Africa has been one of the biggest declining stocks for a second consecutive period (was one of the worst three in the May-August 2011 review period).
The share has fallen by over 50% in a space of less than 8 months; the share had hit a high of Kshs 50 (post split) after announcing record profits for the 2010 financial year. Although the share is now cheap (PE ratio of 4.03), 2011 investment income will likely be much lower that for 2010 due to the bear run at the NSE. Also Pan Africa has a small float; the shares are relatively illiquid.
Sasini
Tea stocks once again feature among the top three gainers at the Nairobi Stock Exchange.
Tea prices have held up in the USD 2.70 to USD 3.00 range over the past one year. These prices are at historically high levels. With the Kenya shilling weakening to an all time low, the Kenya Shilling performance of all tea companies is expected to be good in 2011.
Quote
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