Kenya Power: Year ended June 2011


Kshs 000's
FY 2009
FY 2010
FY 2011
Revenue
36,459,000
39,107,000
42,486,000
Gross profit
18,091,000
19,319,000
23,365,000
Gross Margin
50%
49%
55%
Profit before tax
4,782,000
5,633,000
6,255,000
Net Margin
13%
14%
15%
Profit after tax
3,225,000
3,716,000
4,220,000
Earnings per share
2.14
1.86
2.43
Dividends per share
0.36
0.36
0.45












Change from prior year
FY 2010
FY 2011
Revenue
7.26%
8.64%
Gross profit
6.79%
20.94%
Profit before tax
17.80%
11.04%
Profit after tax
15.22%
13.56%
Earnings per share
-13.08%
30.65%
Dividends per share
0.00%
25.00%
Kenya Power revenues grew by 8.64% to Kshs 42.48B in 2011 from Kshs 39.11B in 2010.
The company’s profit after tax rose by 13.56% to Kshs. 4.22B.
Kenya Power’s performance has improved significantly in the last two financial years. The growth in 2011 was higher, with a 6-point jump in the gross profit margin, from 49% in 2010 to 55% in 2011.
There was, however, a drop in the company’s pre-tax profits and net profit margin, which fell from 15.22% in 2010 to 13.56% in 2011. This suggests that the company was face with higher running costs, a lot of which can be attributed to the high diesel costs in the past year.
Dividends rose to 45 cents a share from the previous year’s Kshs. 0.36 per share. These figures represent adjustments made following Kenya Power’s share issue in December 2010, after the end of the previous financial year. At the current share price of Kshs 17.15 (as at October 19, 2011), the dividend translates to a yield 2.62%. The P/E ratio is fairly low at just 7.06.
Outlook:
Kenya Power has been heavily reliant on diesel-powered electricity generation, which reached an all-time high of 32.5% of nearly 1200 Megawatts of power required in June 2011. The irregular rainfall patterns led to a decline in hydro-electric power generation. As such, the company was compelled to take up the more costly diesel and thermal energy options. The cost has subsequently been transferred to the consumers, in particular the industrial and commercial users who account for over 70% of power consumption in the country today. This is reflected by an increase in both the foreign exchange adjustment costs and the fuel cost surcharge. This coupled with persistent power outages throughout the country has led to increasing dissatisfaction among consumers. In spite of these challenges, Kenya Power managed to record a profit for the year.
Earlier this year, Kenya Power’s CEO Eng. Joseph Njoroge unveiled the company’s 5-year strategic plan. The company plans to increase regional interconnectivity by linking the Kenya power grid to Uganda, Ethiopia and South Africa in order to prevent future lags in supply. It also plans to place more emphasis in thermal, geothermal and wind energy projects. Furthermore, Kenya Power aims to develop its infrastructure with the funds raised from the rights issue. This money will go towards projects such as rural electrification, improvement of infrastructure to boost power supply, and adoption of feed-in-tariffs to promote green energy investments. The introduction of fibre optic cables along the transmission network is part of Kenya Power’s strategy to enter the telecommunications industry and diversify its services. The company has also embarked on a project to provide power to homes in the slum areas. The project targets 67000 households and is expected to receive up to Kshs. 1.5B in reimbursement from The World Bank.
Kenya Power is expected to continue on this profit making if its expansion strategy yields revenue and it is able to control its operational costs.

Accra, Nairobi: Quarter ended September 30, 2011

Select Global Equity Index Movements

30-Jun-11
30-Sep-11
Change
Developed



S&P 500 (USA 500 Share)
1,320.64
1,131.42
-14.33%
Nikkei (Japan 225 Share)
9,816.09
8,700.29
-11.37%
FTSE 100 (UK 100 Share)
5,945.71
5,128.48
-13.74%
Advanced Emerging



Sensex (India 30 Share)
18,845.87
16,453.76
-12.69%
SSE (Shanghai, China All Share)
2,762.07
2,359.22
-14.59%
Bovespa (Brazil 50 Share)
62,403.64
52,324.42
-16.15%
JSE (South Africa All Share)
31,864.54
29,674.20
-6.87%
Emerging Africa



NGSE (Nigeria All Share)
24,980.20
20,373.00
-18.44%
GSE (Ghana All Share)
1,188.91
1,098.38
-7.61%
NSE - 20 (Nairobi 20 Share)
3,968.12
3,284.06
-17.24%

There has been an overall decline in the indices due to global economic gloom. The World Bank, the Federal Reserve, the IMF, Japan’s Central Bank, and the European Central banks have all issued grim warnings about the state of the global economy. European and US Bank stocks have been particularly badly hit over fears that Greece will default on its debt.

The MSCI All-Country World Index is perhaps the best indicator of the severity of the situation, having dropped over 20% since May 2011. The last time the index experienced a similar downturn was during the global financial crisis in 2008.





Select Commodities Price Movements


30-Jun-11
30-Sep-11
Change
Agricultural



Tea - Mombasa Auction $/kg
2.73
3.14
+15.02%
Tea - Mombasa Auction Volume 000's/kgs
5,568
4,905.00
-11.91%
Coffee (NYBOT) cents/lbs : Closest futures
265.35
228.90
-13.74%
Wheat (CBT) cents/60lb: Closest futures
584.75
609.25
+4.19%
White Sugar LIFFE USD/Tonne
739.00
663.30
-10.24%
Palm Oil $ Malay Spot
1,065.00
1,010.00
-5.16%
Cocoa  £/Tonne LIFFE: Closest futures
1,954.00
1,699.00
-13.05%
Crude oil



Brent Blend(dated): Spot
112.48
102.76
-8.64%
Metals



Gold COMEX $/100oz: Closest futures
1,505.50
1,620.00
+7.61%
Copper COMEX (High Grade): Closest futures
425.85
310.35
-27.12%


Commodity prices have stalled across the board as a result of global economic headwinds. China, the world’s biggest consumer of copper has been showing slowing economic growth, hence the particularly hard fall of the metal.

The return to normalcy in the Ivory Coast (the world’s biggest producer of cocoa) has freed supplies leading to a fall of prices from historical highs.

Ghana Stock Exchange: Biggest movers

30-Jun-11
30-Sep-11
Change
Gainers



Total Ghana
17.80
30.33
+68.54%
Starwin Products
0.03
0.04
+33.33%
Golden Web
0.03
0.04
+33.33%




Losers



Trust Bank
1.33
0.40
-69.92%
Transol Solutions
0.07
0.05
-28.57%
Clydestone
0.07
0.05
-28.57%

Total Ghana
Total’s share price has maintained a strong rally even as the GSE as a whole as fallen over the quarter to September 2011.

Total’s half year profits to June 2011 for 2010 climbed by 53.08% compared to the same period last year.

The share now trades at a PE ratio of 17 (based on the half year results). At this valuation the share is relatively expensive given than most stocks on the GSE have fallen on a sub 10 PE ratio.

Nairobi Stock Exchange: Biggest Movers

30-Jun-11
30-Sep-11
Change
Gainers



Limuru Tea
213.00
312.00
46.46%
CMC Motors
10.80
13.50
25.00%
Sasini
11.30
12.05
6.64%




Losers



Pan Africa Insurance
41.50
24.75
-40.36%
Barclays Bank
17.20
10.65
-38.08%
National Bank
34.75
23.25
-33.09%

Pan Africa Insurance
Pan Africa has been one of the biggest declining stocks for a second consecutive period (was one of the worst three in the May-August 2011 review period).

The share has fallen by over 50% in a space of less than 8 months; the share had hit a high of Kshs 50 (post split) after announcing record profits for the 2010 financial year. Although the share is now cheap (PE ratio of 4.03), 2011 investment income will likely be much lower that for 2010 due to the bear run at the NSE.  Also Pan Africa has a small float; the shares are relatively illiquid.


Sasini
Tea stocks once again feature among the top three gainers at the Nairobi Stock Exchange.


Tea prices have held up in the USD 2.70 to USD 3.00 range over the past one year. These prices are at historically high levels. With the Kenya shilling weakening to an all time low, the Kenya Shilling performance of all tea companies is expected to be good in 2011.


Quote
“i believe the most important single thing, beyond discipline and creativity is daring to dare”