Select Global Equity Index Movements
6-May-11 | 5-Aug-11 | Change | |
Developed | |||
S&P 500 (USA 500 Share) | 1,340.20 | 1,199.38 | -10.51% |
Nikkei (Japan 225 Share) | 9,859.20 | 9,299.88 | -5.67% |
FTSE 100 (UK 100 Share) | 5,976.77 | 5,246.99 | -12.21% |
Advanced Emerging | |||
Sensex (India 30 Share) | 18,518.80 | 17,305.90 | -6.55% |
SSE (Shanghai, China All Share) | 2,863.89 | 2,626.42 | -8.29% |
Bovespa (Brazil 50 Share) | 64,417.30 | 52,949.20 | -17.80% |
JSE (South Africa All Share) | 31,878.30 | 29,256.80 | -8.22% |
Emerging Africa | |||
NGSE (Nigeria All Share) | 25,300.50 | 23,397.40 | -7.52% |
GSE (Ghana All Share) | 1,147.54 | 1,185.34 | 3.29% |
NSE - 20 (Nairobi 20 Share) | 4,036.35 | 3,721.53 | -7.80% |
The world’s major stock markets fell in the three months to August 5, 2011 mainly due to heightened concerns about US and European Debt Crises.
Japan’s Nikkei had already fallen significantly by May 2011 due to the Fukushima nuclear disaster. Its relatively strong performance in comparison with the other advanced markets iS because it was already at a significant low.
The banking sector has been the hardest hit. The big drops in the stock prices of the following major banking groups capture the woes of the sector:
Bank of America (Largest USA bank by assets: Down 33.63%). The current
price $8.17 is a two year low.
Lloyds TSB (Largest UK bank by retail outlets: Down 35.94%)
Banco Santander (Spain’s leading bank: Down 19.00%)
Brazil’s Bovespa has been hit by weaker than expected results from its banks due to declining credit quality. The global economic slowdown and indicators showing that Brazil’s economy is cooling have added a further drag to Brazil’s bear market.
Ghana’s GSE is one of the best performing markets in the world in 2011. The Ghana stock market is up 18.53% in the year to date. While the rest of the world’s markets have been collapsing the GSE notched a 3.29% gain in the last three months.
Select Commodities Prices Movements
6-May-11 | 5-Aug-11 | Change | |
Agricultural | |||
Tea - Mombasa Auction $/kg | 2.81 | 2.84 | 1.07% |
Tea - Mombasa Auction Volume 000's/kgs | 4,639.00 | 3,443.00 | -25.78% |
Coffee (NYBOT) cents/lbs : Closest futures | 287.05 | 238.00 | -17.09% |
Wheat (CBT) cents/60lb: Closest futures | 724.50 | 679.00 | -6.28% |
White Sugar LIFFE USD/Tonne | 582.00 | 730.10 | 25.45% |
Palm Oil $ Malay Spot | 1,127.50 | 1,070.00 | -5.10% |
Cocoa £/Tonne LIFFE: Closest futures | 1,866.00 | 1,852.00 | -0.75% |
Crude oil | |||
Brent Blend(dated): Spot | 113.29 | 108.85 | -3.92% |
Metals | |||
Gold COMEX $/100oz: Closest futures | 1,491.60 | 1,649.10 | 10.56% |
Copper COMEX (High Grade): Closest futures | 396.35 | 411.30 | 3.77% |
Tea production in Kenya to the end of June 2011 is 16.38% lower than for the same period for 2010 but 27.95% higher compared to the same period for 2009. Volumes have been on a general upward trend over the last 10 years. In the year to date, auction prices in Mombasa have held in the $2.80 to $3.00 range.
Global sugar prices have climbed back to historical highs after a drop in April-May due to uncertainty about production in Brazil (the world’s largest producer and exporter).
Gold has been pushed up to an all time high due to the current economic uncertainty. Gold is up 16% in the year to date.
Accra & Nairobi Biggest Equity Movers
Ghana Stock Exchange | |||
6-May-11 | 5-Aug-11 | Change | |
Gainers | |||
Total | 16.79 | 21.81 | 29.90% |
Guinness Ghana | 1.25 | 1.57 | 25.60% |
UT Bank | 0.30 | 0.37 | 23.33% |
Losers | |||
Starwin Products | 0.04 | 0.03 | -25.00% |
Aluworks | 0.20 | 0.16 | -20.00% |
Golden Web | 0.05 | 0.04 | -20.00% |
Total Ghana
Total announced good results for the first quarter of 2011. Turnover rose by 25.95% while profits after tax climbed by 33%.
Total’s Performance over the last two years has been excellent. Profits after tax in 2009 were up 111.67% compared to the prior year. 2010 after tax profits were 75.7%, higher than those for 2009.
The share is currently trading at a PE ratio of 13; slightly higher than for most GSE listed stocks but still low considering the rapid growth momentum of the company.
The share is currently trading at a PE ratio of 13; slightly higher than for most GSE listed stocks but still low considering the rapid growth momentum of the company.
Nairobi Stock Exchange | |||
6-May-11 | 5-Aug-11 | Change | |
Gainers | |||
KenolKobil | 9.40 | 11.55 | 22.87% |
Rea Vipingo | 13.00 | 15.00 | 15.38% |
Kapchorua | 112.00 | 120.00 | 7.14% |
Losers | |||
CFC Insurance | 17.95 | 11.85 | -33.98% |
Eaagads | 49.50 | 33.50 | -32.32% |
Pan Africa Insurance | 46.75 | 31.75 | -32.09% |
KenolKobil
KenolKobil had a very strong performance in the first six months of 2011. Revenues were up 38% compared to the same period in 2010. Profits after tax climbed by 83%.
The management expects that the results for the second half of 2011 will be much better than for the second half of 2010. A dividend of 0.57 cents payable on September 2 2011 has been announced.
If the first half performance is sustained for the full year, KenolKobil will be trading at a PE of 3.9, which is extremely cheap considering the growth of the company in Kenya and in the East and Sotuh Africa region.
The management expects that the results for the second half of 2011 will be much better than for the second half of 2010. A dividend of 0.57 cents payable on September 2 2011 has been announced.
If the first half performance is sustained for the full year, KenolKobil will be trading at a PE of 3.9, which is extremely cheap considering the growth of the company in Kenya and in the East and Sotuh Africa region.
KenolKobil was one of our top 3 stock picks in April 2011.
CFC Insurance
The huge drop in this share was anticipated in our May 2011 report where we recommended selling the insurance component of the post spin-off CFC Stanbic Holding shares.
CFC Stanbic Bank shares have held relatively stable over the last three months partially because they were already heavily discounted immediately after the spin-off of CFC Insurance.
Even at the current price CFC Insurance is expensive compared to the other insurance stocks all of which currently trade at sub 10 PE ratios.
CFC Stanbic Bank shares have held relatively stable over the last three months partially because they were already heavily discounted immediately after the spin-off of CFC Insurance.
Even at the current price CFC Insurance is expensive compared to the other insurance stocks all of which currently trade at sub 10 PE ratios.
