Select Equity Index Movements (4 Weeks to May 6, 2011)
Developed | |
S&P 500 (USA 500 Share) | 0.58% |
Nikkei (Japan 225 Share) | 1.55% |
FTSE 100 (UK 100 Share) | -0.55% |
Advanced Emerging | |
Sensex (India 30 Share) | -4.64% |
SSE (Shanghai, China All Share) | -3.49% |
Bovespa (Brazil 50 Share) | -7.00% |
JSE (South Africa All Share) | -1.57% |
Emerging Africa | |
NGSE (Nigeria All Share) | 2.22% |
GSE (Ghana All Share) | 7.46% |
NSE - 20 (Nairobi 20 Share) | 2.85% |
Japan’s stock market held steady after a 9% drop in April following the nuclear crisis in Fukushima. The USA and UK stock markets have been subdued for the last three months with upturns soon followed by dips.
India’s stock market fell on fears of rising inflation driven by rising commodity prices. The recent steep fall in commodities prices should be good for the Indian market if prices remain low. Brazil’s Bovespa and China’s Shanghai composite indexes have been hit by fears of interest rates hikes in both countries.
Nigeria’s stock market experienced a slight bump after largely peaceful presidential elections in which the incumbent won over 55% over the vote in the first round of voting.
The Ghana Stock market has been performing strongly in 2011. The 7.46% rise in the four weeks to May 6, 2011 comes after a steady climb in the GSE All Share Index in the first quarter. The market is one of the best performing in the world: up 16% in the year to date as at May 9, 2011.
The NSE- 20 Share index slight rise follows huge dips in March and April 2011. The NSE 20 Share Index is down 8.96% in the year to date as at May 9, 2011. The combination of drought, high inflation (driven partially by high oil crude prices) and rising political temperatures is likely to keep the market depressed for the rest of 2011.
Select Commodities Price Movements (4 Weeks to May 6, 2011)
Arabica Coffee Prices rose strongly in April 2011 on concerns that harvests in the few coming months will be insufficient to meet rising global demand.
Agricultural | |
Tea - Mombasa Auction $/kg | -1.06% |
Tea - Mombasa Auction Volume 000's/kgs | -6.15% |
Coffee (NYBOT) cents/lbs : Closest futures | 10.45% |
Wheat (CBT) cents/60lb: Closest futures | -4.61% |
White Sugar LIFFE USD/Tonne | -18.40% |
Palm Oil $ Malay Spot | -2.59% |
Cocoa £/Tonne LIFFE: Closest futures | -4.16% |
Crude oil | |
Brent Blend(dated): Spot | -4.84% |
Metals | |
Gold COMEX $/100oz: Closest futures | 4.42% |
Copper COMEX (High Grade): Closest futures | -6.77% |
Arabica Coffee Prices rose strongly in April 2011 on concerns that harvests in the few coming months will be insufficient to meet rising global demand.
Tea volumes traded at the Mombasa auction are at least 20% lower on average compared to the volumes traded in the same period in 2010. The average prices have held steady in the $2.80 to $3.00 range.
Equity Markets Largest Movers
Accra, Ghana: GSE
Gainers
Cocoa Processing Company +50.00%
Standard Chartered Bank +42.78%
Losers
Societe Generale -SSB -26.32%
Golden Star Resources -25.00%
Standard Chartered Bank
SCB’s share price leaped after announcing that it shall issue 5 bonus shares for each share held. SCB has consistently reported growing profits with the GHc 101 profits for the year ended 2010 being the highest ever reported for all banks in Ghana. The share is expensive relative to the rest of the sector at current levels. At the current price (GHc 70) the share is trading at a PE of 24 compared to 10 for Ecobank Ghana based on the quarter ended March 2011.
Golden Star Resources
Golden Star Resources reported a loss of USD 14 Million in the quarter ended March 2011. This weak performance follows the loss made in the final quarter of 2010. Increased in revenues (driven by record gold prices) were more than offset by high operating costs and losses on derivative positions.
Nairobi, Kenya: NSE
Gainers
Scangroup +24.00%
Kenya Airways +23.66%
Losers
CFC Stanbic Bank -18.18%
Access Kenya -14.01%
Kenya Airways
Kenya Airways’ share climbed after reporting good operating performance figures for the quarter ended March 2011 (which is the final quarter of its financial year). The full year financial results are expected in the final week of May 2011. These are likely to be better than the prior year’s numbers. Kenya Airways’ first half results were good, the second half results have historically been better than the first half. At the current price (39.25) the share is reasonably cheap, trading at a PE of 6.
CFC Stanbic Bank Holdings
CFC Stanbic Bank spun off its insurance component into a separate company in April 2011. While the bank component share has continued to decline the insurance bit of the share has risen by over 200% from its introductory price of Kshs 6.15. We recommend selling the insurance component (CFC Insurance Holdings) which at the closing price of 17.95 is wildly overvalued. CFC Insurance is trading at a PE of 67.74, its market capitalization of Kshs 9 Billion is within touching distance of the much larger Jubilee Holdings capitalization: Kshs 10 Billion.
